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Posted by on June 12th, 2012 in blog, CFF Features, Jeff Siverhus | 3 Comments

For all the recruitniks out there that follow their teams off season recruiting with fervor. Many have questioned the methodology of the big recruiting sites; well your suspicions were vindicated. In a recent article, recruiting guru Tom Lemming admitted that they don’t really analyze the talent as much as they follow the recruits offers from the bigger programs. Thus using the “star” rating based upon offers.

 

 

Recruiting analyst Tom Lemming openly declares in a recent interview with Comcast Sportsnet – Chicago [h/t The Lady Sportswriter] that recruiting rankings are based on who offers a recruit rather than objective analysis.

 

Ratings are based on scholarship offers. It doesn’t take a nuclear scientist to figure out the formula that is used by most recruiting services. You don’t see a 5-star player without a lot of offers from top 20 programs, do you? The offers come first, then the ratings.

“If the top 10 schools offer a kid, he is a 4-star or 5-star,” Lemming said. “It comes down to offers, not ability. Look at the NFL draft. How many 5-star players are selected in the first round? Not many. Recruiting ratings are arbitrary, just one way to rate players.”

In addition, the article went on to say:

“No,” said recruiting analyst Tom Lemming of CBS Sports Network, who has been evaluating high school talent for 33 years. “They are put together for people who go online, to attract people. The lists will be completely different on signing day because there are a lot more players still to commit.

“Why are they doing it now? Internet websites have to differentiate themselves from one another. It’s something to do in the off-season. Recruiting is a 12-month-a-year occupation, so college fans are always wondering who is committing or who is recruiting whom or who is thinking of committing.

“But you an always expect certain schools to be on the list. And you can predict now that most of them will be on the list on signing day. It isn’t brain surgery. You can always count on Alabama, Ohio State, USC, Florida, Michigan, Texas and Notre Dame. And now Florida State is back. And LSU will be there at the end.”

In fact, Rivals, ESPN and Scout rate only a few wild cards on their lists. Stanford, Auburn, Clemson, Texas A&M and Missouri aren’t usually included among the top 10, but they have fielded winning teams in recent years and have been threatening to break into the elite group.

There isn’t a secret to all of this. The best players want to play for the best programs in football or basketball. They want to play for coaches and programs that have reputations for grooming players for the next level, the NFL or NBA, and for playing for national championships.

Critics complain about recruiting analysts who evaluate athletes according to 2-star, 3-star, 4-star or 5-star ratings, but history reveals they are right more often than they are wrong. And how many 5-star athletes enroll at Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue or Minnesota?

The SEC is the most dominant football conference in the country and there are reasons why. Conference schools pay their head coaches and assistant coaches more than anyone else. And SEC schools annually recruit the best players and the best classes in the country.

Ratings are based on scholarship offers. It doesn’t take a nuclear scientist to figure out the formula that is used by most recruiting services. You don’t see a 5-star player without a lot of offers from top 20 programs, do you? The offers come first, then the ratings.

“If the top 10 schools offer a kid, he is a 4-star or 5-star,” Lemming said. “It comes down to offers, not ability. Look at the NFL draft. How many 5-star players are selected in the first round? Not many. Recruiting ratings are arbitrary, just one way to rate players.”

Of Rivals.com’s top 100 players in the class of 2013, Michigan and Texas have seven, USC and Ohio State have five, Alabama and Florida have four.

The nation’s No. 1 player by most accounts, defensive end Robert Nkemdiche of Loganville, Georgia, is considering Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Florida, Georgia and Tennessee.

Alabama has commitments from three of the top 35 players–linebacker Reuben Foster (2) of Auburn, Alabama, running back Alter Tenpenny (20) of North Little Rock, Arkansas, and tight end O.J. Howard (35) of Antauga, Alabama.

Foster is the nation’s top-rated linebacker and Howard is the nation’s top-rated tight end. Texas has the nation’s top-rated quarterback, Max Browne of Sammamish, Washington, and USC has the nation’s top-ranked running back, Ty Isaac of Joliet Catholic.

Georgia has 19 commitments, including the nation’s top-rated athlete, Derrick Henry, safety Tray Matthews and Brandon Kublanow of Marietta, Georgia, the nation’s No. 2 center.

According to Rivals, Illinois’ class of 2013 ranks No. 20 in the nation based on new coach Tim Beckman’s ability to land quarterback Aaron Bailey of Bolingbrook, the only four-star prospect in the fold.

 

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